Drought Assessment

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Second, drought assessments should use a system-scale perspective.

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    Meteorological drought assessment in north east highlands of Ethiopia

    It was another dry week for most of the UCRB and eastern Colorado, with the rains falling in areas not in drought. A wet winter and cool, wet spring saved the UCRB from what could have been a devastating season. Despite the extreme short-term dryness, impacts have been heavily mitigated by residual moisture.

    The fire season has been minuscule compared to Surface water supplies are regressing, but still mostly well within the normal range. Soil moisture models are now showing root zone dryness at 20th percentile or worse for the southern end of the basin.


    Climate Prediction Center - United States Drought Information

    This time of year typically begins an unofficial "off season" for regional drought. Existing droughts remain, but as the weather cools, crops are harvested, and seasonal flora return to dormancy, we wait to see how the next winter's snowpack will build. While its impacts may have been limited to the more vulnerable sectors such as rangeland , it is important to note our extreme monsoon season deficits on the Drought Monitor as we enter the dormant season.

    The short-term outlook shows promise for the IMW. Widespread totals of over one inch are expected in southern and central Arizona. The video shown the way to make a very simple comparison between CRU and the models available as a way to reflect some aspects of model uncertainty.

    Lets continue making reference to the SPI12 index and calculate it for a grid point over Cuba to produce one example of how to assess the effects of climate change on drought. This can be done in two ways see the video.

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    The tables produced in this example demonstrate that the drought process in the particular grid point being considered will not have significant changes from the period to period. Just the extreme drought category reflects a future increase, while the other drought categories decrease.

    FAO/IGAD Rapid Cross-border Drought Assessment Results

    The general decrease in the drought process can be due to the increase in the percentage of the normal category as well as the decrease in the occurrence of wet categories. The time series for SPI provide additional and useful features for the characterization of drought processes. This additional information serves to identify the periods where drought occurs and when they are prolonged and intensive.